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Tanzania: Energy Sector Evaluation

Developing countries face tremendous obstacles in developing and sustaining reliable sources of electrical power. Mathematica designed and conducted an impact analysis of the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA)-Tanzania energy interventions. This program, funded by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), aims to improve living standards and reduce poverty in Tanzania by investing $206 million to improve energy-related infrastructure.

The interventions include three activities:

• The Zanzibar Cable Activity, which involves laying a new submarine cable to provide a more reliable source of electricity to Unguja Island
  
  
• The Malagrasi Hydropower and Kigoma Distribution Activity, which replaces diesel power generation with less expensive, cleaner hydropower and extend the distribution network
  
  
• The Distribution Systems Rehabilitation and Extension Activity, which encompasses both rehabilitation of existing distribution networks as well as construction of new networks

We investigated whether these activities led to improved health, economic, and educational outcomes at the household level as well as better financial outcomes at the business level. We are used household and enterprise survey data and a mix of experimental and quasi-experimental approaches for this evaluation.

This project was implemented in two stages. In stage one, we identified appropriate designs for each of the three interventions. The evaluation plans were produced in collaboration with MCC and MCA-Tanzania staff as well as other key stakeholders. The second stage involved an impact evaluation. The study design included a randomized lottery of subsidies for the hydropower and the distribution activities. We anticipate using a pre-post design to evaluate the cable activity. In addition to designing the study, the work included developing the data collection instruments, overseeing data collection activities of a Tanzanian firm, and writing an impact evaluation report. 

Publications

"Electricity in Zanzibar's Unguja Island: Initial Evaluation Findings" Issue Brief (March 2011)
"Tanzania Energy Sector Impact Evaluation: Findings from the Zanzibar Baseline Study"
"Evaluation of Tanzania Energy Sector Project: Updated Design Report"