Does Job Corps Work? An Update

Job Corps stands out as the nation's largest, most comprehensive education and job training program for disadvantaged youth between the ages of 16 and 24. The program provides a wide range of services—basic education, vocational skills training, health care, education, and counseling—primarily in a residential setting. Each year, Job Corps serves more than 60,000 new participants in about 120 centers nationwide, at a cost of about $1.5 billion.

Since 1993, Mathematica has conducted the National Job Corps Study for the U.S. Department of Labor to provide information for Congress and program managers to assess how well Job Corps attains its goal of helping participants become more responsible, employable, and productive citizens. The study is based on a national random sample of all eligible applicants in late 1994 and 1995. Sampled youth were assigned randomly to a program group or a control group. Program group members could enroll in Job Corps; control group members could not, although they could enroll in other education and training programs in their communities. Impacts on key outcomes have been estimated by comparing the experiences of the program and control groups, for the full sample and for key student subgroups. Program benefits, measured in dollars, have also been compared to program costs to assess the program's cost effectiveness.

Previous Mathematica reports, released in 2001, presented findings based on data from periodic surveys conducted over a four-year interval after random assignment. These findings indicated that Job Corps produced beneficial, statistically significant impacts on key outcomes, such as increased academic and vocational training, increased attainment of GED and vocational certificates, increased literacy test scores, and reduced criminal behavior, for broad groups of students. In addition, 12 percent earnings gains were observed during the last two years of the survey period. On the basis of forecasts that these earnings impacts would persist, Job Corps was found to be cost-effective.

A newly released report presents findings using administrative earnings records from the Social Security Administration and state Unemployment Insurance Agencies. These data address three questions: (1) Do survey and administrative earnings data yield similar impact estimates on earnings during the periods covered by both data sources? (2) What are estimated impacts on earnings in the two and a half years beyond the four-year period covered by the survey? (3) Is Job Corps cost-effective based on the more recent data?

Findings show that:

• The pattern of the estimated earnings impacts using the survey and administrative data are similar in periods covered by both data sources, although the survey-based estimates are somewhat larger.
• There were no program impacts for the full sample on employment or earnings after the four-year period covered by the survey.
• The earnings impacts for 20- to 24-year olds at program application appear to have persisted.
• Because the earnings gains for the full sample became zero, the revised benefit-cost estimates suggest that the benefits to society of Job Corps are smaller than the substantial program costs. However, Job Corps may be cost-effective for the 20- to 24-year-olds.
• Only further long-term followup would eliminate uncertainties about the effectiveness of the program. Researchers need to observe the effects of intensive, costly programs like Job Corps over a relatively long time horizon in order to determine whether benefits exceed costs.

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