Labor Market Conditions at School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects on Marriage and Fertility

In this study, the authors assess the long-run impact of labor market conditions at the time of school-leaving on marriage and fertility outcomes. The authors draw data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Their sample left school between 1976 and 1989, and they use variation in the state unemployment rate at the time of school-leaving to identify persistent effects. The authors find that men who left school when the state unemployment rate was high are less likely to be married and have children at age 45, but are more likely to be divorced. Women, however, are more likely to have children.