When Do Regression-Adjusted Performance Measures Track Longer-Term Program Impacts? A Case Study for Job Corps
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Key Findings
Although regression adjustment changes Job Corps center performance measures, the adjusted performance measures are not correlated with impact estimates.
Performance management systems may improve service delivery and participant outcomes, but they do not necessarily provide information on a program's causal effects. This article develops a statistical model that describes the conditions under which regression adjustment improves the performance–impact correlation. Using extensive data from a rigorous evaluation of Job Corps, the study team found that, while regression adjustment changes Job Corps center performance measures, the adjusted performance measures are not correlated with impact estimates.
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